The UFC invades Nashville, Tennessee tonight with a very lackluster card. What it lacks in star power it makes up for with opportunities in betting lines. It’s very rare you see a guy who is +500 in the main event but when your record is 13-12-1 Vegas oddsmakers don’t give you much respect. Let’s dig into the lines and see where the opportunities lie.
First off in the main event, anytime someone is +500 in a fight put a little money on them and let it ride. We saw Darren Elkins a few weeks ago get his ass handed two him for two and a half rounds then win by a fluke TKO late in the fight. Elkins was also +500 and anything can happen in a fistfight. There is no value in betting Cub Swanson at -750 since you have to risk $750 to win $100. Betting on the underdog in this spot is a case where the reward is worth the risk. Arlov rarely gets knocked out and this fight could go to a decision. Arlov has been training at Greg Jackson’s and will have a gameplan in place to put himself in position to win the fight. Fighters who train at Jackson’s in New Mexico have a pretty good track record in the octagon.
Put a small play on Artem Lobov and see what happens. Also going to put some action on over 2.5 rounds as well since I see this one going to a decision.
Dustin Ortiz will come into the fight with Brandon Moreno as the hometown favorite. Having grown up in middle Tennessee Ortiz has the fans in his corner but he’s been inconsistent in the octagon. Moreno, on the other hand has won 10 straight fights and won his first two in the UFC. At +150 the value in on Moreno in a fight that I see as a coin flip.
The play is Brandon Moreno +150
Diego Sanchez is a pretty big underdog against Al Iaquinta in the co-main event. Anytime you see “Nightmare” as an underdog you have to give him a look. He’s 3-4 in his last seven fights but he’s gone to a decision in 10 of 11 fights. Sanchez is gritty and always has a shot in a fight. Iaquinta hasn’t fought in two years and we’ve seen guys who take time off tend to be a little rusty in their first fight back. Sanchez will come right after Iaquinta and ring rust is a factor the former TUF season one star will be in position to win if it goes the distance.
Take Sanchez +350 and see what happens.
Joe Lauzon is 3-3 in his last six fights. But we’ve seen in the past he can end a fight at anytime and always shows up to fight. Stevie Ray tore up the competition in the UK before getting the call from the UFC in 2015. Since then he’s gone 4-1 but hasn’t faced anyone as crafty as Lauzon. Like Moreno-Ortiz this fight is a coin flip. But at +170 clearly Lauzon has the value from a betting perspective.
Go with Lauzon at +170 and hope for a decision win.